Cardumen Capital's 2024 Predictions

As 2024 commences, we at Cardumen Capital want to share a set of predictions for 2024 as collected from our partners. These are the forecasts that we believe will define the financial markets in the coming months.

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1. A Bumpier Soft Landing:

Contrary to the prevailing sentiment of a smooth economic soft landing, we believe that the road ahead may be more uneven. Economic uncertainties and external variables may contribute to a less predictable trajectory, prompting investors to exercise caution.

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2. Tech AI Giants Underperform:

Unlike the last couple of years, we anticipate that in 2024 the seven tech AI giants may underperform compared to the broader market. We see more value coming from emerging players as well as the returns on some of the tech giants biggest investments, based on hype cycles like that around Gen AI, returning to the mean.

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3. Surge in Oil, Energy, and Commodity Prices:

We project a significant uptick in oil, energy, and commodity prices. The global economy's reliance on these resources, coupled with geopolitical factors, is expected to fuel this upward trend.

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4. European Support for Ukraine Continues:

Despite Russia's advances, we see a steadfast commitment from Europe to support Ukraine. The geopolitical landscape suggests that the war is unlikely to conclude, with diplomatic concessions remaining elusive.

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5. Commoditization of LLMs:

In the realm of technology, we anticipate the commoditization of Large Language Models (LLMs), coinciding with a shift towards open source alternatives and smaller, lighter-to-run models. This evolution holds transformative potential for the AI landscape.

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6. Bitcoin Reaches New Highs:

Continuing its years of cyclical behavior, we believe that Bitcoin is poised to reach new all-time highs. The evolving role of digital assets in the global financial system is set to continue its upward trajectory.

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7. Cybersecurity Booms:

In an era of increasing digitization as well as increased security concerns globally, we foresee a significant boom in the cybersecurity sector. As cyber threats become more sophisticated, pushed forward both by state and non-state actors, the demand for robust security measures is expected to surge.

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8. Rise of GenAI-based Virtual Video Celebrities:

We believe this will be the year we see the ascent of GenAI based virtual video celebrities. As artificial intelligence becomes more adept at replicating human behavior, virtual personalities are poised to captivate audiences worldwide.

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9. A Fantastic Year for M&A:

In the realm of business, we predict that 2024 will be a fantastic year for mergers and acquisitions. Economic uncertainties often create opportunities, and companies seeking growth or consolidation may find favorable conditions for strategic partnerships.

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10. Defense Tech Transfer

The global landscape, marked by open conflicts in various regions, is expected to catalyze a significant number of innovative startups transferring technology from defense use to the business world. This trend has been particularly pronounced in robust ecosystems like Israel in the past, where the sophistication level of military forces exceeds the average.

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Of course all these 2024 predictions are speculative in nature. As always, the future is inherently uncertain, our goal here is to provide a framework for thinking about the opportunities and challenges of the coming year. Whether you agree or disagree with our projections, we would love to hear from you! We look forward to revisiting these discussions at the close of the year, assessing how closely reality aligns with our predictions.

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